Calibration of a Bayesian spatio-temporal ETAS model to the June 2000 South Iceland seismic sequence
نویسندگان
چکیده
SUMMARY The reliable forecasting of seismic sequences following a main shock has practical implications because effective post-event response is crucial in earthquake-stricken regions, aftershocks can progressively cause increased damage and compound economic losses. In the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), one two large transform zones where earthquake hazard highest, an intense sequence took place during 17–24 June 2000, starting with ${M}_{\rm{w}}$ 6.4 on 17 followed by another 6.5 four days later different fault. Both earthquakes caused considerable incurred heavy They were immediately aftershock activity causative faults triggered as far 80 km away along zone. To investigate feasibility progression such complex sequences, we calibrated spatio-temporal epidemic-type (ETAS) clustering model to 2000 framework Bayesian statistics. Short-term seismicity forecasts carried out for various intervals compared observations, first generated few hours after daily forecasts. reliability early was seen depend initial parameters. By using adaptive parameter inference approach posteriors from each preceding interval served informative priors next, fast convergence parametric values ensured. As result, 16–84 percentile range forecasted number events captured actual observed all forecasts, exhibited strong spatial ability, even only shock, over subsequent We present ETAS parameters ideal candidates prior estimates future operational other Icelandic sequences. Past need be analysed retrospectively confirm stability this study, effectively enable application system Iceland.
منابع مشابه
from linguistics to literature: a linguistic approach to the study of linguistic deviations in the turkish divan of shahriar
chapter i provides an overview of structural linguistics and touches upon the saussurean dichotomies with the final goal of exploring their relevance to the stylistic studies of literature. to provide evidence for the singificance of the study, chapter ii deals with the controversial issue of linguistics and literature, and presents opposing views which, at the same time, have been central to t...
15 صفحه اولthe innovation of a statistical model to estimate dependable rainfall (dr) and develop it for determination and classification of drought and wet years of iran
آب حاصل از بارش منبع تأمین نیازهای بی شمار جانداران به ویژه انسان است و هرگونه کاهش در کم و کیف آن مستقیماً حیات موجودات زنده را تحت تأثیر منفی قرار می دهد. نوسان سال به سال بارش از ویژگی های اساسی و بسیار مهم بارش های سالانه ایران محسوب می شود که آثار زیان بار آن در تمام عرصه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و حتی سیاسی- امنیتی به نحوی منعکس می شود. چون میزان آب ناشی از بارش یکی از مولفه های اصلی برنامه ...
15 صفحه اولinvestigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures
deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...
Quantitative spatio-temporal sequence discovery
Quantitative spatio-temporal (ST) sequences represent chains of ST event types in a ST framework. For example, it has been widely observed that deforestation in peat-land regions in Southeast Asia are often followed by forest fires, in close proximity of space and time [9]. Such patterns between deforestation and forest fires are attributed to the physical phenomena of degradation of soil due t...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Journal International
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1365-246X', '0956-540X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac387